PUBLICATIONS BY Tracy Foertsch, Ph.D.
Research
2007 Research
April 17, 2007
Calibrating Macroeconomic and Microsimulation Models to CBO's Baseline Projections
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D. and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #07-02)
Changes in tax policy can influence economic incentives to work, save, and invest. Subsequent changes in employment and incomes can affect federal tax revenues. Dynamic analyses capturing such interactions between taxes and the economy are facilitated by calibrating economic models of the economy and taxation to the same "baseline" forecast.
February 15, 2007
The 2001 and 2003 Bush Tax Cuts: Economic Effects of Permanent Extension
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(WebMemo #1361)
Extending these tax cuts would boost U.S. GDP, employment, incomes, and federal tax collections consistently over the next 10 years.
2006 Research
December 07, 2006
Dynamic Analysis at Treasury: What Are the Next Steps?
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D.
(Backgrounder #1989)
A Dynamic Analysis Division in the Office of Tax Analysis could build on work already underway at the Congressional Budget Office and Joint Committee on Taxation, enhancing the budget process and our understanding of the interactions of taxes and the macroeconomy, but the Treasury Department is unlikely to undertake this work without congressional approval of funding.
November 22, 2006
A Dynamic Analysis of the 2001 and 2003 Bush Tax Cuts: Applying an Alternative Technique for Calibrating Macroeconomic and Microsimulation Models
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #06-10)
The authors use a microsimulation model of the federal individual income tax and the Global Insight short-term U.S. Macroeconomic Model to analyze the dynamic economic and budget effects of permanently extending some of the expiring provisions of the 2001 and 2003 tax laws.
August 17, 2006
The Treasury Department's Dynamic Analysis of President Bush's Tax Relief Plan: A Summary and Evaluation
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(Center for Data Analysis Report #06-06)
The Office of Tax Analysis's July 25 summary of its dynamic analysis of the President's proposal to make permanent certain expiring provisions of EGTRRA and JGTRRA could be improved by including additional information on the economic and budgetary effects of changes in tax policy and the sensitivity of the OTA's results to assumptions about the government's long-run fiscal policy.
2005 Research
September 21, 2005
The Economic and Budgetary Effects of the Katrina Emergency Tax Relief Act of 2005
By Tracy L. Foertsch, Ph.D., and Ralph A. Rector, Ph.D.
(White Paper #9999)
Projections of the bill's economic and budgetary effects.
March 07, 2005
AARP's Social Security Plan Would Raise Taxes for AARP Members Without Fixing Social Security
By Rea Hederman, Jr., and Tracy Foertsch
(WebMemo #678)
AARP's Social Security plan would raise taxes on its members and threaten their jobs.
December 3, 2008
